fangraphs 2022 projections standings

With one major exception, most of the problems now are accuracy rather than bias. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors Theyll get Ronald Acua Jr. and Mike Soroka back from their respective injuries sometime during the season; Marcell Ozuna will return to the roster as well. They also need to figure out how to solve the Coors Field hangover effect; over the last five seasons the Rockies have won 55.4% of their games at home and just 43.2% of their games on the road. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Their lineup is plenty strong, though, with Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker forming a powerful quartet. In the National League West, ATC is more bearish on the Padres. Projected lineup. Can the Braves win the World Series again? On the offensive side of things, they added Jorge Soler, Avisal Garca, Joey Wendle, and Jacob Stallings, giving them a lineup that could be good enough to support their young pitching. Approximately minutes of joyous analysis. Uras projects to essentially repeat his 2021 season. (You can learn more about the FanGraphs playoff odds here.). After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Out went Gray, Castellanos, Barnhart, Winker, Surez, Wade Miley and Amir Garrett. I know they dont want to block their prospects, but they dont seem to have been all that imaginative; the Red Sox figured out how to add Story to a team that already had Xander Bogaerts. Eliminating the gap is a fools errand. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski. I talked quite a lot about Francos outlook when he he signed his big ol contract extension, so I wont rehash that here. You can show your support to Fangraphs by becoming a member! Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Despite all that young talent, it was rather confusing to see them refuse to even try to improve their roster from the outside. Should the Orioles trade Mountcastle for a good starter? The Baltimore Orioles are partially responsible for that, with two more expected wins according to ATC. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors Reservations are proceeded at phone no. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Which is why I doubt the $10M number. The Phillies certainly need a starting pitcher, and ZiPS is less than enthralled with the situation at second base and definitely isnt on Team Brandon Marsh. Padres sneaking in as a WC team and reaching or possibly winning the WS would be an amazing 2022. Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Here we see the results of Alex Anthopoulos ruthlessly ensuring that Atlantas entire core stays put for a very long time. * 21+ (19+ CA-ONT) (18+ NH/WY). I dont think they expected to be able to sign him to an extension. They also traded for Matt Chapman, giving them a huge boost to their infield defense. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Please enter a valid email and try again. Former Braves outfielder is headed to the AL East. Ariel is the 2019 FSWA Baseball Writer of the Year. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. New for this year, Ive opted to include defense as a component, though its weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. But many of the players who fell flat on their face in 2022 . by Retrosheet. If theyre not your thing then Im not sure why you clicked on this article. Calibration is a long-term project, and while chasing greater accuracy in mean projections isnt likely to result in any huge bounty theres a reason projection systems are so tightly clustered theres still improvement to be had in things like calibrating uncertainty and long-term data. Now, imagine a scenario in which Acua isnt quite ready, Ozuna is struggling, and the Braves have to field a designated hitter in addition to cobbling together whatever at first. The Cubs are making noise about spending this winter, but they need a couple of starting pitchers, a first baseman, most of a bullpen, and a DH to really threaten the top two teams in the Central. Read the rest of this entry . I dont know exactly what that profile looks like, but Im sure the Rockies analytics department is up to the task (pause for laughter). Nearly every major site has some form of power rankings, usually derived from whatever panel of experts each site employs. The talent was evident, but ownership was clearly reluctant to spend any additional money or prospect capital to supplement the core again. The Mets appear certain to drop a lot of cash this winter, but again, they need to, with Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker, Brandon Nimmo, and, well, much of the bullpen all heading to the open market. The Dodgers argument starts with Freeman and the four former MVPs on their roster; their record $286 million payroll has allowed them to amass huge amounts of talent. Follow Ariel on Twitter at @ATCNY. #1 Adley Rutschman. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. The exercise continues this offseason. Now, correlations with fewer than 20 points arent ideal, but the individual franchise with the highest year-to-year r^2 is the Mariners, at 0.03, which isnt terribly meaningful. It wouldnt be surprising to see the mean absolute error for an exercise like this, I want to use the simplest tool that gets the point across creep up over time. But without their ace, their ceiling is just a bit lower. It wasn't even some fluke of shift-related positioning; only four of those 10 bunts came with three. Whether the anti-service time manipulation rules in the new CBA influenced many teams to carry their top prospects on their Opening Day rosters is up for debate. I still wish Chicago had outbid the Rays for Nelson Cruzs services. Spring time in baseball is a wonderful, wonderful thing. Gambling problem? The Cubs traded away most of the core of their 2016 championship team last summer, but instead of sliding into another deep rebuilding phase, they went out and spent a bunch of money on Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki. ZiPS isnt projecting Matt Chapman to set any new personal bests, as his offense has fallen off enough that hes probably left his 201819 MVP-ish peak for good. The Mets might have snuck into the bottom of the second tier if Jacob deGrom hadnt gotten hurt this spring, sidelining him for the first half of the season. A full year of Byron Buxton would be a huge boost, and the Twins have got plenty of supplemental talent in the lineup in Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, and Miguel San. Yes, the " ZiPs" projections developed by FanGraphs' Dan Szymborski still see the Tigers as a sub-.500 team. Heres their model for the 2022 Atlanta Braves: As you can see, FanGraphs is pretty high on the 2022 team. It would be quite the storyline if those three franchise icons went out with one last postseason appearance. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski. With a strong rotation led by Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, it finally seems like Philadelphia has assembled the talent to break their 10-year playoff drought. by Retrosheet. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors The Blue Jays strengths are undeniable: a potent lineup that scored the third-most runs in baseball last year, and the best projected starting rotation based on our 50/50 blend of FIP and RA9. ATC: ATC Projections courtesy of Ariel Cohen. Those three should give a significant boost to an offense thats floundered since the core of the 2015 championship team was broken up. In my mind, that extreme difference in atmosphere and home-away record makes the Rockies the most interesting team in the league outside of the Rays. If you think that certain franchises have a history of predictive over- or underperformance, youd have thought wrong, and Id bet its the same for other projection systems. Not giving Witt every opportunity to be a foundational talent at shortstop so that the Royals can be a .480 team instead of a .478 one doesnt feel like it has the same upside. Evan Longoria is 36, Brand Crawford is 35, and Brandon Belt is 33. Follow him on Twitter @jakemailhot. They traded for Matt Olson and immediately signed him to an eight-year extension, giving them their long-term replacement at first base. The premium ad-free membership. Lance Lynns knee injury isnt as serious as Garrett Crochets Tommy John surgery, but losing the former means Chicago will have to turn to either Vince Velasquez or Reynaldo Lpez until Johnny Cueto is ready to go. Thats a lot of ifs that have to go right, though. Luckily, New York brought in plenty of help during the offseason, spending at record levels to sign Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Eduardo Escobar and also trading for Chris Bassitt. Plenty of their magic from last season seems sustainable even if the projection systems cant recognize it, but it still feels like everything needs to go right, again, if theyre going to be a contender in 2022. by Handedness, Looking Back at the 2022 ZiPS Projections, 2022 ZiPS Projections: Washington Nationals, 2022 ZiPS Projections: Kansas City Royals. Stored within ZiPS are the first through 99th percentile projections for each player. It has the Braves with a very similar final record to FanGraphs at 92-70 and even better chances to make the playoffs at 91%. ZiPS was talking about 1980s minor league outfielder Ted Williams. Sotos plate discipline is other-worldly. No team was luckier than the Mariners last year. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors No team spent more during the offseason than the Rangers a fascinating turn after the club lost 102 games in 2021. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. The team has a credible backup at most positions and even some upper minors depth (Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and, if you believe Steamer rather than ZiPS, Khalil Lee) they can use if the need arises. Not when they need a 2B, at least one OF, maybe a C and P. Posey retired, Kevin Gausman left to the Blue Jays, and Kris Bryant is a free agent and likely not going back to the Giants. Probably not. The surprises start at the top, with the Braves sitting ahead of the Dodgers for the top spot in the preseason rankings. Speaking of unanswered questions: Will Christian Yelich return to being the MVP-caliber player he was in 2018 and 19, or is the seriously diminished production of the last two years his new baseline? So how does ZiPS calculate the season? The Astros are still the favorite to win the AL West, but theyre also looking just a little more vulnerable than they have in the recent past. With Joey Votto, reigning NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India, Luis Castillo, and Tyler Mahle still on the roster, Cincinnati has some talent left, but it was a very confusing process to get to this point. After applying the new strength of schedule calculations based on the other 29 teams, I end up with the standings for each of the million seasons. Regardless, there might finally be some glimmers of hope on the horizon. Still, a bounce back from Nick Castellanos remains likely. The ATC projections are more bullish on the White Soxs chances in 2022, putting the odds of Chicago making the playoffs at 82% versus the FanGraphs Depth Charts (FGDC) figure of 72%. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, And the As, well, they didnt have anyone good enough to lose, which is something! Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch, and Kris Bubic, who collectively comprise the Royals highly regarded first-round haul from 2018, have all made their major league debuts to varying degrees of disappointment. "@HaloDom47 Whatever it projected was thrown out of whack because of Rendons bitch ass and a lot of the injuries that happened to other players most notably Trout. Theres enough talent on the roster to be a nuisance to the other contenders in the NL East but not enough for the Nationals to be contenders themselves. If you start by looking at the offensive comps in the chart below, you can see how quickly things go downhill in the batters projections. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted The Twins surprised everyone when they landed Correa as their starting shortstop. I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as an initial starting point. Welcome to our NHL projections and probabilities page where you will find each team's projected point total, its probability of . Fangraphs: 2022 Top 100 Prospects. My own expectation (Vazquez) would be $8-14M. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. It's not all bad. The goal of ZiPS is to be less mind-blowingly awful than any other way of predicting the future. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The Braves have short-term and long-terms questions in their rotation that are still waiting to be answered. by Handedness, The Absurdly Preliminary 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings, Despite Non-Tender and Big Struggles, Theres Hope for a Bellinger Revival, Angels Snare Hunter Renfroe, Brewers Fill Up on Pitchers. The exercise continues this offseason. Also gotta remember that the rest of the Central teams (especially Twins) have payroll space. You can read more about how ATC works in this introductory article. Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers. I dont think that theyll ever solve the hangover effect in the sense of substantially reducing the gap. Wander Francos very quickly become a star, and Brandon Lowe is my pick for the most underrated second baseman in the game. They signed Noah Syndergaard and Michael Lorenzen to round out their rotation and Ryan Tepera, Aaron Loup, and Archie Bradley to support Raisel Iglesias in the bullpen. I do think some of this projection is because Yoan Moncada was a mess but I dont think he will be that bad again. While the Guardians seem to be content to let their kids play in 2022, the Tigers went out and acquired a ton of talent to supplement their top prospects who are ready to graduate to the majors: Javier Bez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Meadows, and Tucker Barnhart. Outbidding Minnesota for Correa (or signing Trevor Story) would have been a more elegant and probably superior solution to the the Josh Donaldson trade, without adding significant money to the payroll. That move alters the direction of the organization considerably. The Cardinals probably have the best shot at toppling the Brewers atop the NL Central, but their case took a blow when Jack Flaherty and Alex Reyes went down with shoulder woes. ZiPS then automatically fills in playing time from the next players on the list (proportionally) to get to a full slate of plate appearances and innings. OK, not really. Their problem is that none of Kansas Citys young pitchers have stepped up to contribute in a big way yet. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer. The last move giving Rodrguez the chance to start with the team may be the biggest source. As for Baseball Prospectus, theyr projection model is called PECOTA which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, as Im sure you knew. Been watching a bunch of old games and it's amazing to [Passan] Outfielder Juan Soto and the San Diego Padres Nightengale: DH Nelson Cruz has agreed to a one-year [Lin] Jake Cronenworth and the Padres avoided arbitration Press J to jump to the feed. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors Well update these throughout the season as more and more info gets added. But for whatever reason, PECOTA has finally started to like the Braves. I feel 81 wins is a pretty reasonable expectation for them. Braves Hall of Fame profile: Bronson Arroyo. As for Washington, lets just say that their second-best projected offensive player was someone who I wasnt completely sure I had heard of before. Toronto also projects to have the lowest downside of any of the AL East contenders. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. Still, the 2022 version of this AL powerhouse looks a little less potent than previous editions. None of Starling Marte, Mark Canha, or Eduardo Escobar are superstars though Marte comes close at times but signing that trio really improved how the lineup looks going into 2022. Another 15 wins to add to this projection seem pretty straightforward. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted ZiPS misses for teams from year to year are uncorrelated with an r^2 of one years miss to the next of 0.000575. Actually, the reason theyve spent no money is that Dolan is cheap and knows hell make money win or lose. You forgot the except Cleveland at the end of that. Even with a healthy team here Fangraphs projection stands and the Angels are projected to finish in 4th place in the AL West." Unlike the last two disappointing seasons, they should have enough talent to succeed without deGrom leading the rotation. If they can find a few midseason upgrades for their pitching staff, or if Paddack blossoms in his new home, they could make the White Sox sweat down the stretch. The lineup is neither good nor particularly young, and as such, it will likely struggle to push the Marlins to be much better than the National Leagues 14th-ranked offense in runs scored, Miamis 2021 mark. The White Sox should still be more comfortable than they were before the Twins collapsed last season, as Minnesota hasnt completely solved its rotation woes. Well get the bad news out of the way first because, well, thats the order we do these blurbs in. The contract that Carlos Correa signed with the Twins really calls into question some of the Yankees maneuvering during the final weeks of the offseason. This may look depressing, but it also reflects the fact that everyone in the division is getting a tougher schedule in 2023. The team had five starters with above-average ERA+ numbers, and the bullpen was, well, average -- which for the Angels counts as improvement. Collin McHugh had an impressive 2022 campaign too 2.60 ERA with a 0.938 WHIP over 69.1 innings. If you dont know, FanGraphs uses both the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems for the individual inputs in their model. JAWS and the 2023 Hall of Fame Ballot: Mike Napoli. FanGraphs simulates each season 10,000 times to generate the probabilities. We've graded all 32 teams -- including one A+ and two F's -- and announced the winners of our own batch of awards . Their entire system is proprietary to their site but as they describe it, its a system that takes a players past performance and tries to project the most likely outcome for the following season. Of course, thats what every projection model attempts to do but all in different ways. The As might have had one more competitive season with their core that won nearly 60% of their games from 2018 to 20. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!! As you can see, FanGraphs is pretty high on the 2022 team. Signing Kris Bryant to launch dingers into the stratosphere in Denvers thin air is undeniably cool and fun. I love projection models because one, theyre a useful and unbiased tool used to objectively measure where each team stands after the off-season. ATC: ATC Projections courtesy of Ariel Cohen THE. You can see how all the talent on their roster could come together to form a contender, but the specter of their late-season collapse looms large. Looking at the in-season ZiPS projections, roster strength has varied much more in recent years than when I started doing this. Of experts each site employs Baseball is a pretty reasonable expectation for them think he will that., but it also reflects the fact that everyone in the division getting. It & # x27 ; t even some fluke of shift-related positioning ; only four those. Winning the WS would be quite the storyline if those three franchise icons went out with one last appearance. By making a generalized depth chart, using our depth Charts as initial! This may look depressing, but it also reflects the fact that everyone the... 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